Expert says that Omicron will definitely make everyone a victim once, out of 100 tests, 25 will come out positive; Let us know when the havoc will stop...
Corona cases are increasing worldwide rapidly due to the new variant Omicron of Corona. Omicron, 70 times more infectious than Delta, is rapidly becoming the dominant variant in many countries of the world. Due to Omicron, records of new corona cases are being made in America and Europe. However, Omicron seems to be causing less severe disease so far than Delta. But experts are warning not to take this new variant lightly.
The new variant of Corona, Omicron, has spread rapidly all over the world and in less than two months it has spread to more than 100 countries of the world. Experts believe that Omicron will become the dominant variant in the coming days or weeks. Edward Ryan, MD, Director and Director of International Infectious Diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital in the US, says that nearly 100 percent of cases in the New England region of America are now Omicron and the delta variant has almost disappeared from there. As of the first week of January, Omicron was responsible for about 96% of new cases in the UK and more than 80% of the cases in the US and France.
In South Africa where Omicron was first found, more than 93% of cases are now of this variant. In India too, about 35% of the new cases by the end of December were from Omicron. Omicron was responsible for about 40% of the new cases till the first week of January. In metros like Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, about 75% of the new cases of Corona are from Omicron.
When will the peak of the fresh wave of Corona come? Experts estimate that the peak of the fresh wave of corona in India is likely to come in February. First IIT Kanpur and now recently IIT Madras in their study have expressed the possibility of the peak of fresh wave in the country during 1 to 15 February. According to American expert Dr. Edward Ryan, the peak of corona in America can come by the end of January and cases will start decreasing in February and life is likely to be back on track by March.
What does mean Positivity Rate? The positivity rate is an indicator of the spread of the coronavirus. An increase in the positivity rate means that out of the total corona test done, the number of people found positive has increased. The percentage of positivity rate is an indication of how much infection has spread in the country or area where corona testing is being done.
What would be the positivity rate? According to experts, It can reach 20-25%? As per records from the Ministry of Health, as of January 09, the country's daily positivity rate has increased to 10.21% and weekly positivity rate to 6.77%. It is expected to increase further in the coming days. The R-value of the country has also increased to 4, that is, now one infected person can infect 4 people. The country's R-value during the second wave was 1.9. According to American expert Dr. Edward Ryan, the daily positivity rate is expected to reach 20%-25% in many countries. A possibility is also being raised about Omicron that it could be the beginning of the end of Corona. Although experts believe that the speed with which it is spreading, it is difficult for anyone to avoid it and once everyone is infected with Omicron. Only then will herd immunity develop against this variant.
American expert Dr. Edward Ryan says that there is no way to avoid Omicron and it will happen to everyone once, only then will herd immunity develop against it. With the rapid spread of Omicron, there is a possibility of developing herd immunity in the world quickly. Herd immunity is a condition in which almost the entire population develops immunity against the virus. This can be due to a past or current infection or vaccination. Dr. William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University, Tennessee, USA, believes that if there are no more new variants after Omicron in 2022, then it may be the beginning of the end of the corona or moving towards endemic. More infectious Omicron attacks only the upper respiratory tract, i.e. the throat, so it spreads faster.
Omicron has a lower hospitalization rate than Delta, despite the rapid increase in the number of hospitalizations occurring in already sick people. According to the BBC report, a UK study states that Omicron has a 50%-70% lower hospitalization rate than Delta and other variants This is true to a large extent in India as well. According to the experts, only 1%-2% of people infected with Omicron in the country are hospitalized, which is much less than the second wave. According to this report, those admitted to the hospital are already ill, people of 60+ age or unvaccinated people are more. More than 20 thousand corona cases were registered in Delhi in the first week of January and the positivity rate increased to 19%. But in the first week of January in Delhi, the hospitalization rate has come down. According to other expert views, Delhi's hospitalization rate was 6.6% on January 1, which came down to 4.81% on January 07. That is, even though corona cases are increasing in Delhi, the number of people admitted to the hospital has declined.
Will most of Omicron's infected be asymptomatic? Yes. Most of the Omicron cases coming in the world are asymptomatic. According to the Ministry of Health, about 70% of the Omicron cases in the country are asymptomatic. 90% of the Omicron cases in the country have been found in people who are vaccinated. That is, the fear of dodging Omicron's vaccine also seems to be proving true. According to the World Health Organization, preliminary studies show that while Omicron spreads more rapidly than the delta variant, its symptoms are less severe and most cases are asymptomatic.
Booster dose and Omicron: The demand for the introduction of a booster dose has started rising after the Omicron variant was suspected of dodging existing vaccines. Many countries of the world have already started giving booster doses. In India also, from January 10, people of 60+ ages are being given the preparation or the third dose. But many experts believe that it is not possible to give a booster dose every six months for the new variant of Corona.
Scientists from Oxford University have recently said that the whole world cannot be vaccinated in four to six months; it is neither long-term nor affordable. Researchers say that instead of giving a booster dose to everyone, it should be given only to susceptible people. American expert Dr. Edward Ryan says that by the time we give booster doses to the people, before that the havoc of Omicron will be over.
It is observed that rapid antigen tests and RT-PCR tests for corona are not effective in catching Omicron infection in the early days. According to American expert Dr. Edward Ryan, for people who have symptoms, the rapid test is 50-80% sensitive while, for asymptomatic people it is only 30-60% sensitive.
To stop Omicron, governments are also tracing people who have come in contact with the infected person, so that it can be stopped from spreading. Close contact is considered when a person spends four or more hours in a place like home with an infected person. Omicron has a risk of spreading 70 times faster than Delta, so contact tracing is believed to be effective in preventing Omicron from spreading. However, the Ministry of Health has not mandated corona testing of asymptomatic people coming in contact with a corona-infected person in the country.
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